The Victim of His Success
Vol: 83 Issue: 28 Thursday, August 28, 2008
The DNC is everything its planners were hoping for — so why is the Obama campaign foundering? Make no mistake — it is foundering — despite all the glitz and glamor and bling.
It isn’t because of Hillary Clinton. While most Americans credit her with the “18 million cracks in the glass ceiling” cracked ceilings are not exactly the right image to associate with the person in charge of America’s security umbrella.
We’re glad she cracked it, but most of us don’t want to live under it until we’re sure it won’t cave in on us.
It isn’t because of all the gaffes Obama’s made, either. And he’s made some beauties.
There’s the crack about white midwesterners whose antipathy towards those not like them is the result of their ‘clinging’ to guns and religion.
Or his suggestion that if we all inflate our tires, we could solve the energy crisis without drilling.
Obama has survived mistakes that would have destroyed a white politician of either party, and appears set to survive associations that would even embarrass a Clinton.
I can’t imagine even Bill or Hillary surviving a Jeremiah Wright or a William Ayres. The Clintons have a lot of shady associates, but they would have better sense than to kick off a political campaign from the home of a self-avowed anarchist terror-bomber.
Tony Rezko — well, he’s just your run of the mill money-laundering crook. He might have done damage to a Democrat prior to 1992, but in the post-Clinton era, we’re simply relieved he isn’t a member of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.
Obama has rubbed a lot of people the wrong way with his perceived arrogance: “We are The One we’ve been waiting for” — the mainstream media has even taken to calling Obama the Democratic ‘messiah.’
Obama’s campaign enjoys the unequivocal support of the mainstream media. Plus, when it comes to playing the ‘race card’, Obama has all the aces.
Obama can hint that his opponents are all racists with total impunity, while using his race as a shield to deflect any criticism from his opponents.
Obama is the ‘post-racial candidate’ whose race is therefore his most important asset.
If he was white, he couldn’t be ‘post-racial’ and if there weren’t racial tensions, he couldn’t be ‘post racial.’ So, in order to ‘transcend’ his racial background, he needs to bring it up at every opportunity — as if it were a liability to him, rather than the asset it actually is.
We discussed ‘cognitive dissonance’ before. It is that uncomfortable feeling that comes from holding two contradictory views simultaneously. Your mind wants to believe one thing, but your brain is telling you something else.
Ever notice how angry smokers get when they try to quit? The mind tells them they want to quit, but their brain is telling them how much they really want a cigarette. The result is ‘cognitive dissonance’ at its most extreme.
So here are the voters, trying to convince themselves that Obama is the guy to support because it proves America is post-racial. But if one removes race from the equation and Obama is just another Joe Biden only without any experience.
Cognitive dissonance.
Why nominate an unknown politician with only 143 days Senate experience to run for president? To prove we’re beyond race. Can’t do that without a black guy to transcend it by reminding you that he’s a black guy who managed to overcome being a black guy.
So therefore, race is no longer an issue. But this is how the AP framed the story of his nomination:
“Barack Obama stands before delegates and the nation Thursday – the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.’s historic “I Have a Dream” speech – to accept the Democratic presidential nomination, the first black man to claim such a prize.”
The Kansas City Star reported that “Barack Obama stepped triumphantly into history Wednesday night, the first black person to win a major party s presidential nomination.”
Reuters reminded its readers that Barack Obama is black saying in its story of his nomination:
“Many Democrats see Obama’s campaign as a step towards bridging the country’s racial divide — black Americans constitute some 12 percent of the population —but he has made a point of not running on his race.” Cognitive dissonance.
Newsday — one of New York’s most reliably liberal local dailies, headlined its story about America’s race to transcend race this way: “Obama is First African-American Nominee.”
In Newsday’s uncritical view Obama’s nomination was “a watershed moment that drew tears of amazement and joy on the convention floor, [when] Illinois Sen. Barack Obama secured a place in history last night, becoming the first African-American presidential nominee of a major party.”
But this is NOT an election in which race is a major factor. As reported by the Star, ‘Obama has made a point of not running on his race.’
Cognitive dissonance.
Assessment:
Obama, as I noted, is flat-lining at the polls, a victim of his own success. As the Democrats were nominating Obama by acclamation, John McCain edged slightly ahead in the polls, 47-46 percent.
And the media is scrambling for an explanation. The Agence-France Presse (the European arm of the NYTimes) complained that McCain’s surge was the result of ‘withering attacks’ against Obama.
Historically, a presidential candidate from either party can count on two distinct electoral ‘bounces’ — or surges in the polls.
The first comes following the candidate’s announcement of a running mate. Historically, that event translates, at least temporarily, into a five to nine point bounce. Obama named Joe Biden and the polls flat-lined.
The second comes following the official nomination at the convention. This is the event that generates the biggest ‘bounce’. If you watched the process yesterday, you know what I mean. Even if you aren’t sure about Obama, you can’t help but get caught up in the excitement.
Historically, all that excitement translates, at least temporarily, into a nine to fifteen point “bounce” at the polls.
In 2004, an ABCNews/Washington Post poll found the Kerry-Edwards got a six-point ‘bounce’. They lost. In 1992, Clinton-Gore got a fifteen point ‘bounce’. They won.
In the 1972 election, the McGovern-Shriver ticket received a three point negative ‘bounce’ (the only negative convention bounce in fifty years). That year, the Democrats lost by an Electoral College margin of 96.6%.
But why do I say that the Obama/Biden ticket is doomed to be a victim of its own success? His campaign has stayed on-message throughout — and, let’s admit it, the McCain attack ads haven’t been all that great. The convention has been wildly successful, from an organizational standpoint.
The Clintons’ didn’t try to hijack the convention from within and the militant group PUMA (Party Unity My A**) failed to ‘Recreate ’68) as had been feared.
Joe Biden didn’t make any major gaffes during his acceptance speech — and tonight, Obama Himself will give The Speech that the mainstream media is already raving about.
A month ago, Obama was leading McCain by five points, according to Rassmussen. Yesterday, despite the millions spend on glitz and glitter aimed at introducing the Obama/Biden ticket to America, Rasmussen had McCain slightly ahead with a one point lead.
For the Obama-Biden ticket, it represents the first NEGATIVE campaign ‘bounce’ for the Democrats since 1972.
Obama’s only success so far has been in communicating his message. He is pro-abortion, but unsure when human life begins. He opposes a Constitutional amendment on marriage because “the Constitution doesn’t address marriage.”
(Duh! That’s why an amendment is necessary. The Constitution didn’t mention slavery, either. Until the Civil War forced the passage of the 13th Amendment)
Obama opposes the Iraq War and refuses to acknowledge the surge is working. He opposes domestic oil exploration marches in lockstep with the most liberal views of the Democratic Party.
He’s communicating his message, which is the hallmark of a successful campaign strategy. So why no ‘bounce’?
It’s because so far, Americans don’t like the message. We’re all for electing a black candidate. Just not this one.
Evidently, we’re smarter than we look. Time will tell.
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