“Today, Surrender, Tomorrow, Nuclear War!”
Vol: 79 Issue: 22 Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Today could, in theory, be the day that the Democrats will have their final candidate. But only in theory.
There is a lot riding on the Pennsylvania primary, but it will take a lot to dislodge Hillary Rodham Clinton.
According to Peter Fenn, a former Clinton campaign advisor, Hillary would have to ‘blow out’ expectations, but to do that, “the wheels would have to come off the Obama bus and the engine would have to blow.”
(I love these campaign metaphors — they’re so colorful)
A Hillary Clinton presidency has been pretty much a foregone conclusion ever since she made her first run at the Senate in 2000. The Clintons practically had to be dragged, kicking and screaming, from the place in 2001.
They liked the White House so much they pried all the presidential insignia from the interior walls.
They liked the furniture so much they took some of it home with them, resulting in an embarrassing, but amusing “Repo Man” scenario on the Clinton’s front lawn as federal agents carried the stuff back out and loaded on a government truck.
They liked Air Force One so much that, when it came back from taking them home, the plane had to be restocked with presidential dishes, towels, and other federally-owned ‘memorabilia.’
And who can forget that bizarre ‘Farewell to the Chief’ ceremony as Clinton arranged as pompous an exit as was his arrival eight years earlier? No doubt they’ve dreamed of nothing else for eight years — but along came Obama.
Obama currently leads by a margin of 1,645 to 1,504 among pledged delegates and those super-delegates — elected and party officials who get an automatic vote on the nomination — who have indicated a preference.
It will take 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. There aren’t enough uncommitted delegates to put either candidacy over the top unless Obama loses every remaining primary by wide margins.
To get the brass ring, Hillary needs to win Pennsylvania by 25 points, and score 20-point margins of victory in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.
Plus, she’d have to at least break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon.
So, Peter Fenn is right — the wheels will have to come off Obama’s bus for the Clintons to have a shot at another four years of paid public housing.
Although Hillary has won all the ‘big states’ Obama still leads comfortably, not just in the delegate count, but by almost a million popular votes.
So Pennsylvania is a bellwether state worth watching closely. It will set the tone for the rest of the primary season. Depending on how the Pennsylvania primary turns out, Hillary will have one of three options remaining.
She can win big, re-energizing her campaign, or she lose big, which could cause her to drop out, kicking off the general election campaign early. In the event of something approximating a tie, she still has her third option — and the one that offers her the best chance at victory.
She could try to steal the nomination at the convention.
To do that, she would have to convince the party big-wigs at the convention that Obama is unelectable, and that her campaign gives the Dems the best shot at beating McCain in November.
In Democratic internal politics, the popular vote is only a guide. Obama could win the majority of delegates and popular votes and the Nominating Committee could legally ignore the results and give the nomination to Clinton and the left foot of fellowship to Barack Obama.
That is the scenario most dreaded by the DNC and the most hopeful scenario possible for the GOP.
How important is Pennsylvania to Hillary? Important enough to ‘obliterate’ Iran, if necessary.
Iran??? That’s what she promised yesterday on ABC’s “Good Morning America”.
Chris Cuomo asked her directly how she’d respond should Iran attack Israel with nuclear weapons. “I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran,” Clinton said.
“In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.”
That statement provides the clearest contrast yet between Hillary Clinton and, er, Hillary Clinton.
Since voting to authorize the war in Iraq, she’s made surrendering to al-Qaeda in Iraq and their Iranian handlers a mainstay of her campaign — not because she thinks its the right thing to do — but because she thinks it will get her elected.
On the other hand, she is equally willing to ‘obliterate’ (presumably with nuclear weapons) 45 million Iranians — if she thinks that it will get her elected.
Surrendering in Iraq would essentially hand that country to the Iranians, emboldening them to the point where they just might feel strong enough to take on Israel. And then, after surrendering to them and handing them Iraq, she’ll nuke ’em all til they glow?
The story here is not so much that Hillary will do ANYTHING to win, or that Pennsylvania may or may not be her Waterloo.
The real story is that there are people that will vote for her anyway. Lots of them, if the polls are right.
There is something we Christians could do to influence the primaries — we could pray and pray hard.
Except how do we pray that they both lose?
Note to the Members:
What are your political instincts telling you? Who do you think will ultimately face off against McCain in November? Take a second to vote in this morning’s poll. (Remember, you must be logged in to vote)