Hezbollah Crosses the Green Line

Hezbollah Crosses the Green Line
Vol: 41 Issue: 26 Saturday, February 26, 2005

Four people were killed and more than 50 were wounded in a suicide attack launched against a Tel Aviv seafront nightclub on Friday night. The IDF identified the bomber as Abdullah Badaran, a twenty-one year old ‘student’.

It would make you wonder what Islamic universities were teaching them, if it weren’t for the fact that we already know — to blow themselves up ‘for Allah’ — if doing so will advance a political cause.

The reaction to the bombing was unusual, as compared to previous bombings. The three main terrorist groups that would normally be competing to take credit for such attacks all denied involvement.

Al-Aqsa leaders in Nablus and Jenin emphatically denied involvement late Friday night, telling The Jerusalem Post: “We would never stab Abu-Mazen in the back.” Islamic Jihad leader Mohammed al-Hindi also denied that his group had any link to the attack.

None of the three groups hung the usual posters at the bomber’s home congratulating him for his ‘martyrdom’ — nor did anyone else, according to the Jerusalem Post. This is also out of character.

What DIDN’T seem out of character, at least at first, was PA leader Mahmoud Abbas’ immediate denouncement of the attack as a ‘set-up’ aimed at discrediting the Palestinian Authority. It sounded too much like Arafat.

But it might just be that, this time, its a case of the boy crying ‘Wolf!’ one time too often – but this time, the wolf is really there.

Hezbollah has crossed the Green Line.

Assessment:

This was the first suicide bombing since Israel and the Palestinians agreed to an informal ‘ceasefire’ as a first step toward ending the four year Oslo War.

Hamas and the al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade both rejected the cease-fire in principle, but have reigned in their fighters in practice, taking a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude.

But Israel has lived up to its side of the agreement and there have been no incidents or violations for which the Palestinian terrorists could justify an attack, and therefore, no motive.

All three major Palestinian terror groups are crippled and bleeding and unlikely to bring down the wrath of the IDF on their doorsteps again without good reason.

Also, unlike in previous attacks, the Palestinian Authority needed no Israeli prompting to track down and arrest two of the bomber’s brothers and several of his neighbors in connection with the attack.

Palestinian security officials were much too quick to report to the media that they also arrested two men in Tulkarem — with more expected — they hastened to add — for this to be a typical choreographed Palestinian kabuki dance.

The Palestinian Authority is blaming Hezbollah for the attacks, but a Palestinian denial is worthless on its face, since the Palestinian Authority has yet to be caught in a truth regarding terrorist attacks against Israel.

But this time, the evidence seems to suggest that they may have stumbled into the truth after all, especially since Hezbollah is ALSO denying responsibility.

Here’s where all that Islamic ‘intrigue’ stuff comes in to play — it’s enough to make one’s head swim.

Hezbollah would be only too happy to take credit, unless its involvement could be traced to Damascus or Tehran. Right now, Syria is under intense global pressure to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. Syria is desperate to avoid being forced to do so.

Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley is more or less a Syrian province, controlled by Hezbollah, and believed by Western intelligence to be the destination of those mysterious convoys streaming out of Iraq into Syria during the months leading up to the Iraq War.

Attempting to revive the Israeli-Palestinian fight would serve Damascus politically. Hezbollah takes its spiritual marching orders, however, from the mad mullahs in Tehran. Iran has two reasons for diverting attention back to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The first is to keep Hezbollah in the Bekaa Valley as a viable deterrent to an Israeli first strike. Hezbollah sits on a devastating stockpile of Iranian and Syrian munitions, including non-conventional weapons.

Iran is close to having the Bomb, but Bush’s visit to Russia may have put a crimp in their plans.

Russia has reportedly ‘postponed’ a nuclear fuel signing agreement, citing ‘last minute disputes’ with the Iranians. Tehran needs a diversion that will drive a wedge between Washington and Moscow. A renewed Israeli assault on the Palestinians would do the trick nicely.

The AP reported that, “Yacoub Jabbarian, an official at Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters that talks had been prolonged and it was not clear when the signing would take place. He did not give the reason for the delay.”

It also noted that; “The agreement has been repeatedly delayed by what Iranian and Russian officials called technical and financial details. But diplomats in Vienna where the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, is based say U.S. pressure on Russia has also held up the deal.”

A Hezbollah incursion inside Israel’s Green Line was a very bold move indeed, and one not to be entered into lightly. The risks to both the Syrian and Iranian regimes are substantial.

If a connection can be made, Israel’s retaliation could easily set off a chain reaction that could result in their sharing adjoining cells with Saddam, should they survive their own people. But they seem willing to take the risk. Why?

The answers are probably hidden away somewhere in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

This entry was posted in Briefings by Pete Garcia. Bookmark the permalink.

About Pete Garcia

Christian, father, husband, veteran, pilot, and sinner saved by grace. I am a firm believer in, and follower of Jesus Christ. I am Pre-Trib, Dispensational, and Non-Denominational (but I lean Southern Baptist).

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