Scientists Present South Asia Nuke Scenario

Scientists Present South Asia Nuke Scenario
Vol: 8 Issue: 27 Monday, May 27, 2002

A group of environmental scientists have developed a probable scenario for a limited nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan.

The calculations are based on what would happen if 10 explosions took place, similar in size to the one over Hiroshima in Japan in 1945, over some of India’s and Pakistan’s most populated cities.

The Institute for Science and International Security in Washington suggests that India has about 65 warheads made from 310 kilograms of plutonium.

Pakistan has around 40 made from 690 kilograms of uranium. Each warhead is believed to be roughly equivalent to Fat Man and Little Boy the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.

The London Sunday Times reported that Pakistan may have a larger arsenal than is estimated by Washington, which would make the environmental scientists estimate a best case scenario.

M.V. Ramana of Princeton University in New Jersey estimated that if only a tenth of the nuclear weapons of two countries were exploded above 10 of their largest cities, 2.6 million people would die or be injured in India and 1.8 million in Pakistan. Radioactive dust, if the bombs exploded on the ground, would kill people across hundreds of square miles.

This scenario is based on a limited nuclear war, not an all out nuclear war. If either side unleashed their entire arsenal, the destruction and death would increase exponentially, rendering Pakistan extinct and India a third of her former self.

The war zone would be uninhabitable for decades, if not centuries. Nuclear fallout would be carried into the upper atmosphere and deposited world-wide.

Pakistan s two missile tests over the weekend were matched by an order for India s nuclear forces to begin taking its warheads out of storage and fitting them to delivery systems. The London Times reports Pakistan has done the same.

Over the past half-century the world has been on the brink many times; the Berlin Airlift; the Cuban missile crisis; the Middle East and most recently, the Persian Gulf War. At the last minute, somebody blinked, and everybody ordered their nuclear forces to stand down.

We ve grown accustomed to it, like seeing a scary movie when you ve already heard how it ends. It s still scary, but less so. We expect this to end with a sigh of relief.

It might. But it looks increasingly like this time, both sides might go the distance despite the fact it means national suicide for Pakistan.

Musharraf is operating on the principle that an Indian nuclear strike would be limited New Delhi is, as well. The problem is, either side can escalate the conflict. In war, once it s begun, the rules are to win.

Assessment:

Since it means national extinction, is President Musharraf crazy enough to continue provoking its much larger and better armed neighbor? The evidence says yes.

President Bush confirmed during a press conference on Sunday from France that he indeed asked Pakistani President Musharraf not to conduct the provocative missile tests of Pakistan s Ghauri and Ghaznavi missiles over the weekend.

He s crazy enough to stick his thumb in Bush s eye over the missile tests. That s a clue.

He has continued to support, train and arm Islamic terrorists willing to go after India, just as he supported, trained and armed the Taliban and al-Qaeda before September 11 changed his world.

Here’s another clue. Indian intelligence has been directed by Prime Minister Vajpayee himself to scour the Middle East and the Persian Gulf for every scrap of information linking Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein with the Pakistani president, and Iraqi military intelligence with Pakistan s Inter-Services-Intelligence agency.

Egyptians and Saudis captured in Kashmir have confessed during interrogation by Indian intelligence officers that they had received their orders, destinations, money, weapons and ammunition from former Afghanistan desk officers of the Pakistani SIS.

If it turns out Musharraf is still playing footsie with al-Qaeda to advance his war plans against India, then its more than a clue. If he’s crazy enough to risk that, then the sky’s the limit.

India and Pakistan together represent slightly more than one sixth of humanity. China shares a common border with both.

A number of prominent Bible prophecy teachers are advancing the theory of a false Armageddon that so numbs the world that it voluntarily begins to surrender power to the center, forming the four spheres of global power that exist in the last days.

A nuclear war in South Asia would accomplish that in short order. It is hard to imagine Europe sitting by idly after witnessing the carnage of an Indo-Pakistani nuclear war without forcefully putting an end to the growing nuclear threat in its own back yard in the Middle East.

But that is speculation. What we know is this. We ve just emerged from the Roaring 90 s a time of peace and prosperity unmatched in modern history.

It was kicked off by the imaginary peace dividend reaped by standing down our military forces, closing foreign and domestic military bases and reducing our military budget.

The 90 s represented a pax Americana during which the world was more or less at peace. Those who stepped out of line, like Milosevic or Saddam, were soundly spanked like recalcitrant children and send to their rooms to sulk.

It all began to unravel, almost in tune with the calendar change. The miracle bull market began to stumble. The threat of an American spanking didn t faze al-Qaeda, it just made them mad.

September 11 happened, and we discovered that the pax Americana of the 1990 s was an illusion. While America [and those under our protection] celebrated peace and safety, our enemies [including some of those under our protection] plotted our destruction.

The Middle East is about to explode into open war, with the attending threat of the use of chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons.

Another sixth of humanity is a heartbeat away from nuclear extinction in South Asia. And the words of the Apostle Paul take on new relevance.

But of the times and the seasons, brethren, ye have no need that I write unto you. For yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so cometh as a thief in the night. For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape. [1Thessalonians 5:1-3]

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About Pete Garcia

Christian, father, husband, veteran, pilot, and sinner saved by grace. I am a firm believer in, and follower of Jesus Christ. I am Pre-Trib, Dispensational, and Non-Denominational (but I lean Southern Baptist).

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